Wisdom of the Lindy Effect
Find the meaningful amidst the daily bombardment of the trivial.
“Use laws that are old, but food that is fresh.” - Periander, Tryant of Corinth, 627-587 BC
In his essay titled, An Expert Called Lindy, Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes how a group of actors (while frequenting Lindy’s deli in New York City) observed a relationship between how long a Broadway show had been around and how much longer it would likely stay around. They discovered a show’s life expectancy was roughly equal to its current length of life. If a show had been around, as an example, one hundred days, it’d likely be around for another one hundred days. This became known as the Lindy Effect. And that, my friends, is our newest mental model.
As a critical thinking tool, the Lindy Effect can help you sift through current trends and zero-in on concepts with time-tested records.
Simply put, the Lindy Effect predicts robustness - claiming the longer something has lasted, the longer it is likely to last. It clearly doesn’t apply to entities with lifespans e.g. people or plants. (I sensed you thinking, “Just because I live to 80 doesn’t mean I’ll likely live to 160!”) Instead, it can be used when dealing with non-perishable concepts such as human behaviors, ideas, architecture, technologies, and systems.
It’s unlikely many people care about the length of a Broadway show’s survival. In contrast, the vast majority of people care about making good decisions regarding health, personal relationships, financial investments, information to consume, food to eat, ideas to consider, and how to spend their time. The Lindy Effect applies far beyond the stage of Broadway and is one tool that can help you employ your time and resources wisely. Consider the following hypothetical situations:
Finance: Is gold or bitcoin more likely to be used to store monetary value in fifty years? Take into account that gold has stored value for five thousand years and bitcoin has been in existence for twelve.
Health: Is a new fitness trend worth your money? Probably not if you simultaneously ignore timeless pillars of good health such as eating whole foods, drinking water, regular movement, meditation, and lifting heavy objects.
Personal development: If you’re looking for self-development should you spend time reading up on Unlimited Power written by current-day life coach Tony Robbins or Meditations by Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius, written in the first century AD?
Design and architecture: If your intent is to design a structure, say a city, that you want people to enjoy for decades or centuries to come, pull ideas and concepts from examples that have been enjoyed for decades or centuries.
The Lindy Effect alone may not provide an answer, but you can see it highlights principles with proven records that are likely to still reliable. Many things last a long time for good reasons. We should take note.
That is not to say that old is always better. Our lives are full of amazing modern advances in medicine, technology, and science, to name a few. On the flipside, our lives are also witness to many evil things that have survived centuries. All true. The Lindy Effect should be considered a general rule, not an absolute law. But the Lindy Effect can even be used in the case of concepts we find contemptable. Recall the phrase “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” That’s not a good thing, but realizing it’s been a human trait for centuries, means we’d be fools to pretend it’s extinct today.
Predicting the longevity of a Broadway show is a fun thought experiment, but the Lindy Effect is most impactful in reminding us to pay attention to what’s been time-tested. It encourages us to seek out older mentors, listen to classic music, read well-worn books, study ancient ideas, and admire old architecture. Every day we are bombarded by novelty. The internet, social media, billboards, television, radio, influencers, magazines, books, and often our friends, all love to sell us on the newest and greatest thing. Let Lindy remind you to zero in on worthwhile pursuits.
New is not always bad, and old is not always good. But let’s remember that the quip “an oldie but goodie” has stood the test of time.
Now get out there and live a courageously unsafe but good life.